Friday, July 13, 2007

AAA Batting Splits

Here are a few interesting batting splits I noticed around AAA baseball. Some players have a lot more value if considered as one half of a platoon. Small sample size warnings apply.

Right-handed Pitcher Mashers:
Tike Redman OF Norfolk: .220/.310/.300 vs LHP, .322/.397/.447 vs RHP.
Joe Inglett 2B Buffalo: .188/.247/.219 vs LHP, .280/.359/.407 vs RHP.
Clay Timpner OF Fresno: .214/.267/.268 vs LHP, .388/.441/.512 vs RHP.
Scott Moore 3B Iowa: .182/.267/.260 vs LHP, .284/.398/.525 vs RHP.
Joey Votto 1B Louisville: .260/.381/.364 vs LHP, .333/.423/.522 vs RHP.
John Rodriguez OF Memphis: .190/.327/.310 vs LHP, .291/.396/.573 vs RHP.
Andy Abad 1B Nashville: .222/.250/.222 vs LHP, .366/.411/.584 vs RHP.
David Murphy OF Pawtucket: .230/.295/.322 vs LHP, .303/.377/.458 vs RHP.
Timo Perez OF Toledo: .279/.292/.384 vs LHP, .333/.384/.525 vs RHP.
Nathan Haynes OF Salt Lake: .233/.340/.395 vs LHP, .438/.503/.641 vs RHP.
Pete Laforest C Portland: .188/.281/.365 vs LHP, .238/.372/.667 vs RHP.

Left-handed Pitcher Mashers:
Mike Cervenak 1B Norfolk: .305/.356/.547 vs LHP, .272/.297/.369 vs RHP.
Jason Dubois OF Norfolk: .297/.387/.500 vs LHP, .217/.270/.370 vs RHP.
Scott Seabol 3B Albuquerque: .391/.434/.736 vs LHP, .266/.339/.492 vs RHP.
Chris Barnwell SS Nashville: .337/.375/.472 vs LHP, .234/.324/.360 vs RHP.
Luis Figueroa SS Fresno: .368/.424/.526 vs LHP, .279/.315/.314 vs RHP.
Brian Anderson OF Charlotte: .300/.353/.550 vs LHP, .236/.303/.386 vs RHP.
Jeff Keppinger 2B Louisville: .446/.479/.708 vs LHP, .337/.402/.374 vs RHP.
Michael Restovich OF Columbus: .440/.517/.747 vs LHP, .210/.269/.389 vs RHP.
Aaron Herr 3B Louisville: .344/.400/.589 vs LHP, .253/.309/.394 vs RHP.
Nick Stavinoha OF Memphis: .407/.474/.523 vs LHP, .240/.267/.369 vs RHP.
Tagg Bozied 1B Memphis: .338/.438/.663 vs LHP, .225/.303/.433 vs RHP.
Lou Collier OF Ottawa: .383/.413/.567 vs LHP, .259/.314/.306 vs RHP.
Jeff Bailey 1B Pawtucket: .301/.400/.493 vs LHP, .231/.342/.405 vs RHP.
Kurt Suzuki C Sacramento: .344/.425/.453 vs LHP, .252/.319/.327 vs RHP.
Mike Eylward 1B Salt Lake: .375/.432/.563 vs LHP, .276/.340/.351 vs RHP.

Restovich is an interesting case. He hit .305/.403/.562 against lefthanders in 2006 at AAA Iowa. I'd give him a shot as part of a DH platoon. Laforest hit .291/.347/.592 against righthanders at Durham in 2005 (he didn't play in 2006), but only .210/.234/.484 against lefthanders. He's that elusive left-handed hitting catcher.

Some interesting platoons:
1B: Votto/Bozied
2B: Inglett/Keppinger
3B: Moore/Seabol
C: Laforest/Suzuki
OF: Timpner/Anderson
OF: Murphy/Stavinoha
OF: Rodriguez/Collier
DH: Abad/Restovich

We seem to have a shortage of left-handed hitting shortstops. I suppose that if you can hit RHP and can play short, you're in the bigs.

I wish there was a website where I could sort on split stats.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Fantasy Baseball: Adam Jones

Adam Jones is a 21 year old (he'll be 22 on August 1) centerfielder in the Mariners organization. Word is he's coming to the bigs, and you may want to pick him up in a deep fantasy baseball league.

The Mariners selected Jones in the first round of the 2003 draft out of high school as a shortstop. He moved to centerfield last year.

This season at AAA Tacoma, Jones hit .309/.377/.585 in 340 AB. 21 2B, 5 3B, 21 HR, 28 BB and 86 SO. The high whiff rate might mess up his immediate results in the majors. Only 5 stolen bases and 6 caught stealing.

In 2006, Jones hit .287/.345/.484 for AAA Tacoma. 380 AB, 19 2B, 16 HR, 13 SB, 28 BB and 78 SO. The walks and strikeout totals weren't good, but not awful considering his age.

Adam Jones is a very young player with power. Definitely someone to pick up in a deep keeper fantasy baseball league, but don't expect too much right away. His age and the whiffs might mean he'll struggle for a year or two. Or he might not. It's a gamble.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Prospect Watch: Ronny Cedeno

Ronny Cedeno is a 24-year-old shortstop playing at AAA Iowa for the Cubs. He was in the majors all of last season and didn't do anything with the bat, so some may have written him off as a prospect. That would be a mistake.

This season, Cedeno is destroying the Pacific Coast League to the tune of .383/.457/.611 in 193 at bats. He has 25 walks and only 24 strikeouts, so he's showing tremendous improvement in batting eye. He's also flashing power with 10 home runs and 12 doubles. It's been a very consistent performance -- strong against left- and right-handed pitchers, at home and away, and in every month.

Last year with the Cubs he hit only .245/.271/.339 in 534 at bats, with only 17 walks and 109 strikeouts. Awful. But he was only 23 and has obviously rebounded nicely.

Has Cedeno ever shown hitting skills before in the minors? Yes. In 2005 he hit .355/.403/.518 in 245 at bats at Iowa before being promoted to the majors (where he hit .300/.356/.375 in 80 at bats).

Was last season just a horrendous "sophomore slump" for Ronny Cedeno? I don't know, but the Cubs now have other middle-infield options and might be willing to trade the guy cheap. He certainly should be back on everyone's prospect radar now.

Monday, July 9, 2007

The Importance of a Good Bench

A good bench is important to team success in baseball, but you wouldn't know it from the bench players teams use.

Consider the Baltimore Orioles' bench:

Jay Gibbons 208 AB -- .212/.265/.351
Paul Bako 111 AB -- .207/.279/.261
Chris Gomez 111 AB -- .297/.339/.378
Freddie Bynum 47 AB -- .277/.320/.532
Alberto Castillo 31 AB -- .161/.229/.323
Brandon Fahey 26 AB -- .192/.222/.192

TOTAL 534 AB.

534 at bats. That's far more than the team leader in at bats (Nick Markakis with 347). The scrubs on the Orioles' bench have 1.5 times as many at bats as any starting position player. This isn't an usually high total - bench players get a lot of playing time and it's mostly wasted.

The Detroit Tigers went from 829 runs scored in 1984 to 729 runs scored in 1985. Bill James calculated that the 100-run dropoff was mainly caused by the team's switch from a good-hitting bench to a bad-hitting bench.

There are players stuck at AAA who could be useful off the bench in the major leagues. They'd be a big improvement on the no-hit-wonders that pollute big league rosters now.

Sunday, July 8, 2007

House & Raburn

2007 Ken Phelps All-Star JR House has left the Orioles organization. He had an opt-out clause if he wasn't on the major league roster by July 1. Can't blame him for wanting a chance. Hopefully some smart team will pick him up, make him the DH and forget all about catching. He'd be a fine fit on the Twins -- they need a DH.

Ryan Raburn, another 2007 Ken Phelps All-Star, has been called up by the Tigers to replace the suspended (and crappy) Neifi "Nifty" Perez. So far he has one hit in one at bat, with one RBI. Let's all hope that Raburn gets to play more before he's sent back down. It's unfortunate for Ryan that he hits lefties better than righties -- Craig Monroe is getting killed by RHP this year (.179/.241/.308) but hits LHP pretty well (.338/.347/.618). Might've had a platoon there if they didn't have the same splits.

Andy Mitchell as a Starting Pitcher

Andy Mitchell is a right-handed pitcher at AAA Norfolk (Orioles organization). He's 28 years old and works as a reliever most of the time, but has 5 starts this season. The results of those starts are interesting.

In his starts, Mitchell has thrown 25.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and only 4 walks. 1 home run and 18 hits. 2.45 ERA. That's really good pitching.

As a reliever, Mitchell has a 4.65 ERA in 40.2 innings. 31 SO and 15 BB. 2 home runs and 48 hits.

He's an extreme underhanded pitcher (a submariner like Chad Bradford) so he's got a reliever label, but maybe he's more effective as a starter. He gets a ton of ground-outs (2.06 GO/AO ratio) which is a really good sign.

Getting left-handed hitters out has always been a struggle for Mitchell. Check out these stats:

vs. LH (avg, obp, slg)
2007 .289/.381/.356
2006 .341/.413/.462
2005 .295/.382/.400

vs RH
2007 .218/.252/.291
2006 .236/.314/.310
2005 .260/.317/.415

I'd think a starting pitcher could work around those LH hitters while a reliever just has to get everyone out. Anyway, the lefties don't hit for great power against him, but the walks are a pain.

In 2006, Mitchell only made one start in 51 appearances for AAA Ottawa. Overall he had a 2.27 ERA in 67.1 innings, 49 SO, 27 BB, 3 HR, 72 hits. Not bad.

He made zero starts in his 5 previous seasons in the Orioles organization.

The Orioles are hurting for starters at Norfolk, so this could be Mitchell's big chance to get noticed. Last night he started and went 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits (one homer). 5 strikeouts and no walks. I hope he stays in the rotation and gets a chance to prove himself.

Saturday, July 7, 2007

Edwar Ramirez (Yankees)

Edwar Ramirez is a right-handed relief pitcher recently called up by the Yankees. He's 26, and was pitching for the independent league Edinburg Coyotes before the Yankees signed him as a free agent on July 9, 2006.

Originally signed by the Angels out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, Edwar didn't pitch too well and was released in March of 2004. In 2005 he pitched great for Pensacola of the independent Central League (62 IP, 93 SO, 15 BB, 1.45 ERA) and pitched in one (1!) game for AAA Salt Lake City (2 IP, 2 SO, 0 BB, 0 hits) with the Angels, but they dropped him again.

In 2006 Edwar was in the Yankee organization and pitched in 19 games for Tampa of the Florida State League. 1.17 ERA, 30.2 innings, 47 strikeouts, 6 walks, 0 homers, 14 hits. He overpowered them.

This season he pitched for AA Trenton and AAA Scranton. Combined for a 0.62 ERA in 43.1 innings. 80 strikeouts, 17 walks, 1 home run, 19 hits. Dominant.

Edwar Ramirez gets strikeouts, has fine control, and doesn't give up hits or homers. I'd say he has a bright future. What an unlikely success story!

Wednesday, July 4, 2007

2007 Ken Phelps All-Star Team

Here's the complete 2007 Ken Phelps All-Star Team, with links to individual write-ups. Selection criteria include: 1) in the minors (mostly) this season and last, 2) "freely available" (waiver claim, minor league free agent, long-time minor leaguer), and 3) performance that stands out among AAA peers.

Position Players:
LF: Ryan Raburn, 26, Tigers
CF: Darnell McDonald, 28, Nationals
RF: Hiram Bocachica, 31, Padres
3B: Scott Seabol, 32, Marlins
SS: D'Angelo Jimenez, 29, Nationals
2B: Jeff Keppinger, 27, Reds
1B: Joe Dillon, 31, Brewers
C: JD Closser, 27, As
DH: JR House, 27, Orioles

Honorable Mention:
LF/2B/3B: Bobby Scales, 29, Red Sox
2B: Edgar Gonzalez, 26, Cardinals
3B/2B: Jack Hannahan, 27, Twins

Starting Pitchers:
Devern Hansack, RHP, 29, Red Sox
Ron Chiavacci, RHP, 29, Tigers
Buddy Carlyle, RHP, 29, Braves
Mike Gosling, LHP, 26, Reds
Bobby Livingston, LHP, 24, Reds

Relief Pitchers:

Cory Doyne, RHP, 26, Orioles
Grant Balfour, RHP, 29, Brewers
Brian Sanches, RHP, 28, Phillies
Travis Driskill, RHP, 35, Astros
Dan Giese, RHP, 30, Giants

My Ken Phelps All-Stars can play, and could fill a role for the right major league team. They just need a chance. Free the Ken Phelps All-Stars!

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

2007 Ken Phelps All-Stars: Relief Pitchers

I've decided to present all five of the relief pitchers on my 2007 Ken Phelps All-Star Team at once. There are many qualified relief pitchers out there, so consider my selections as representative of lots of other effective relievers stuck in the minors. Why don't teams try these guys instead of spending millions on free agent retreads?

Cory Doyne - 26-year-old RHP, Orioles. Signed as a minor league free agent.
2007: 10.31 k/9, 2.95 bb/9, 1.97 FIP at AAA Norfolk
2006: 10.58 k/9, 5.70 bb/9, 2.94 FIP at AA Springfield (Cardinals)

Grant Balfour - 29-year-old RHP, Brewers. Comeback from injury. Minor league free agent.
2007: 13.00 k/9, 2.67 bb/9, 2.16 FIP at AAA Nashville
2006: 11.12 k/9, 4.76 bb/9, 2.85 FIP at A Sarasota (Reds)

Brian Sanches - 28-year-old RHP, Phillies. At AAA for 3 seasons. Now doing well in bigs.
2007: 11.70 k/9, 1.20 bb/9, 2.40 FIP at AAA Ottawa
2006: 10.72 k/9, 2.68 bb/9, 2.38 FIP at AAA Scranton

Travis Driskill - 35-year-old RHP, Astros. Pitching well in a tough park.
2007: 9.44 k/9, 1.98 bb/9, 3.10 FIP at AAA Round Rock
2006: 8.07 k/9, 1.81 bb/9, 3.66 FIP at AAA Round Rock

Dan Giese - 30-year-old RHP, Giants. Signed minor league contract.
2007: 8.40 k/9, 1.00 bb/9, 2.24 FIP at AAA Fresno
2006: 8.33 k/9, 1.01 bb/9, 2.78 FIP at AAA Scranton (Phillies)

Obviously I favor relievers who can get the strikeout and have excellent control. "FIP" is Fielding Independent Pitching and is a better stat for relief pitchers than ERA.

Monday, July 2, 2007

2007 Ken Phelps All-Stars: Bobby Livingston (SP)

The fifth and final member of the starting rotation for my 2007 Ken Phelps All-Star Team is Bobby Livingston. Bobby is a 24-year-old left-handed pitcher. Now you might say "Whoa there! 24 is awful young for a Ken Phelps All-Star." And you'd be right. It is young, but Livingston was waived by the Mariners in December of last year and claimed by the Reds (the Reds did well snagging both him and Gosling off waivers), so he definitely counts as "freely available talent." He was selected in the 4th round of the 2001 draft by the Mariners and was in their organization until they prematurely dumped him.

Livingston consistently demonstrated good control in the minors and gives up few home runs. His strikeout rate is borderline good, but that's forgivable for a left-hander who gets a lot of ground-outs.

This season Livingston made 14 starts for AAA Louisville. Over 89.1 innings he had a 3.83 ERA with 58 strikeouts and only 13 walks and 4 homers. He murdered left-handed batters (.213 BA, 28 SO, 2 BB, 20 H in 26 IP).

SO/9: 5.85 (marginal)
BB/9: 1.31 (excellent)
HR/9: 0.40 (excellent)
GO/AO: 2.01 (excellent - gets lots of ground outs)

In 2006, Livingston made 22 starts for AAA Tacoma. In 135.1 innings he had 69 strikeouts, 36 walks and 18 home runs. His ERA was 4.59. Not inspiring, but remember he was only 23 years old and his stats from previous years were better (he was an all-star in the California League in 2004 and in the Texas League in 2005).